Why Do People Vote the Way They Do?

Bryon Allen and Chris Wilson's article in the November/December 2009 Politics Magazine addresses the use of heuristics in defining voter behavior. Allen and Wilson first warn against assuming voters are paying close attention to a campaign and thus acting as a "rational voter." And the authors, likewise, advise not to give voters too little credit, assuming they are "ignorant voters."

Allen and Wilson identify four categories that they call heuristics that can explain voter decision-making:

1. Affect -- a quick decision based on an initial reaction to a candidate
   
2. Single Factor -- one criteria, whether a particular issue or relationship with a candidate
3. Ideology -- the overall coordination of a candidate
4. Authority/Liking -- an endorsement or recommendation of a candidate by an informative source

The authors are quick to point out that a voter's heuristic may change from election to election and candidate to candidate.

Nader Questions the Influence of Business on Government

In a recent interview given to truthout.org, Ralph Nader identified what is perhaps the most pressing problem Americans face, the influence of multi-national corporations on the U.S. government. His new book, Only the Super-Rich Can Save Us, leads one to ask, what do we need to be saved from? Nader provides this thoughtful response:

[We need to be saved] from the concentrated power of multi national corporations over our government. It's a corporate state, almost clinically defined, and FDR warned against this in 1938. Any government that's taken over by private economic power -- he used the word -- he said that's fascism.

Nader went on to explain that both Republicans and Democrats are guilty of kowtowing to these business interests and that it is a significant impediment to effecting any substantive change. The entire interview is available here.

Updated July 29, 2020: The interview is now available here.

IRS To Conduct 6,000 Random Business Audits

The National Association for the Self Employed reports that the Internal Revenue Service will begin reviewing the tax records of 5,000-6,000 randomly chosen businesses beginning this November (2009). The program will be completed over the course of three years on both for profit and non-profit employers.

The NASE makes the following suggestions to make sure your company is ready:

• Since these audits will be unfolding over a three-year period and audits typically cover a period of three tax (calendar) years, initiating an internal review of employment taxes compliance now is the first step to consider.
• Identify an internal point person to manage the audit preparation process. Notices of audits can simply be addressed to the company at the address used for filing recent tax returns. If not directed to an informed contact person such notices may not be timely or completely responded to.
• Identify and budget for internal and other resources to gather, organize and analyze such records and provide appropriate representation.
• Engage experienced employment tax and audit experts before having an initial audit meeting with the IRS. Legal counsel should generally be able to provide assistance protected by the attorney-client privilege. Whether such expertise is engaged to either visibly represent the employer or simply to advise the employer in the background, it is important to engage these services early. Early involvement usually lends to a more efficient audit process.
• Do not rush into an audit schedule. Do not commit to a date before the adequate resources are in place and there has been an opportunity to gather, review and analyze all initially requested documents. It is important for the employer to have an overview of the company's strengths and weaknesses.
  

Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. Collection Available

Oliver Wendell Holmes served on the United States Supreme Court from 1902 to 1932. The quotable Holmes, perhaps best known for writing that the First Amendment would not protect a person from falsely yelling, "Fire!" in a crowded theater, was also a soldier in the Civil War, a Harvard Law School professor, and Chief Justice of the Massachusetts Supreme Court. The Harvard Law Library recently made much of Holmes's works and effects available on the web as part of its Digital Collection project. Many items of interest are now accessible by the public, including Holmes's own annotated copy of The Common Law, perhaps his most significant work. The Holmes collection can be accessed here.

Updated July 29, 2020: The collection can now be accessed here.

Nixon Library Expands, Moves Archives

The Nixon Library reports that due to an addition to the library's Yorba Linda, California campus, documents and audio-visual materials currently stored at the National Archives in College Park, Maryland will be moved to the library proper in 2010. Copies of all publicly-available audio tapes will be available at the library campus, the National Archives, and online.

Updated July 29, 2020.

Amazon Kindle 2

The second generation Kindle will ship at the end of February, 2009. From looking at the pictures released by Amazon, the Kindle 2 is not only thinner than the original (about the width of a #2 pencil), but it is sleeker. With rounded edges and better placement of page buttons, the device should store easier, without inadvertent page turns. Amazon is accepting pre-orders now.

We have the original Kindle, and it is an amazing device. The Wall Street Journal and Financial Times are delivered wirelessly each morning, and old issues are disposed of with the click of a button rather than a trip to the recycling container, making the Kindle as environmentally-friendly as possible. And there are so many free and inexpensive books available that it would take several lifetimes for the average reader to get through them all.

This is not a marketing blog and not designed to make a profit from affiliate links, but if you are considering an electronic reading device, the Kindle is worth your consideration.

Kindle 2: Amazon's New Wireless Reading Device (Latest Generation)

Indiana Court Takes on Prisoner Education Credit Time

In Stevens v. State of Indiana, No.90A05-0802-PC-90, the Indiana Court of Appeals addressed time credit given to prisoners who earn a high school diploma while incarcerated. Stevens had completed a high school diploma through Continental Academy, and he applied for educational credit time with the Indiana Department of Corrections. The application was denied, and Stevens appealed to the trial court, which denied his petition for review without a hearing.

Significantly, there was no documentation submitted by either Stevens or the State that said why Stevens was denied credit time. The Court indicated that prisoners should be told why they were denied credit, and it remanded to the trial court for a finding as to whether Continental Academy "maintains standards of instruction substantially equivalent to those of public high schools" located in Indiana.
 
This is an important case because it protects prisoners from arbitrary denial of privileges granted to them by the state legislature. If the General Assembly has gone to the trouble of allowing a prisoner to earn credit time for achieving a high school diploma, an explanation of denial of credit must be given. Otherwise, the incentive to earn a diploma is erased, and it makes it too easy for corrections officials to deny this and other privileges without accountability.

George Will Gets One Right

In his September 23, 2008 Washington Post column, George Will rightly points out that the "bailout" goes against conservative principles. The Republicans, according to Will, are "conducting the most leftist administration in American history."

Neither of the old parties' Presidential candidates is ready to assume that office, he continues:

It is arguable that, because of his inexperience, Obama is not ready for the presidency. It is arguable that McCain, because of his boiling moralism and bottomless reservoir of certitudes, is not suited to the presidency. Unreadiness can be corrected, although perhaps at great cost, by experience. Can a dismaying temperament be fixed?

Heller's Rights Further Trampled

A machine gun, really?

The plaintiff in the recent D.C. handgun case before the Supreme Court, Dick Heller, reportedly has had his application for a handgun permit for his semi-automatic handgun rejected. The weapon has a bottom-loading magazine that holds seven rounds, and the D.C. police groups these types of weapons with machine guns, which are prohibited.

It sounds like the D.C. powers not only could use firearms training, but they also need to learn about firearms themselves and exactly how and why they are used for self-defense. In fact, it would be good policy for lawmakers to educate themselves about proposed legislation prior to enacting it in all cases. The people should not allow legislators to take rights away that the lawmakers do not fully understand. Ignorance may be bliss, but it is also evil when it cripples a society designed to be free.

Congress Considering Gas Tax Increase

There will be no gas tax holiday anytime soon. It appears that we're not going to have to worry about not paying the 18.4 cent gasoline tax for quite awhile, especially if either of the old party candidates is elected this fall. In fact, according to the Associated Press, Congress is considering raising the tax to 24.3 cents per gallon.

2008 Migrant Death Count

reprint from Center for Latin American and Border Studies, NMSU

In a grim disclosure, Mexico's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE) recently released its count of the number of Mexican migrants who died struggling to reach El Norte in 2008 so far. Until June 9, the SRE documented the deaths of 117 migrants who perished while attempting to cross the Mexico-US border.

According to the SRE, most of the deaths, or 72 to be precise, were registered in the state of Texas. The McAllen area of the Lone Star State proved to be the deadliest point for would-be border crossers, with 26 undocumented Mexicans losing their lives in the zone. Additionally, 14 migrants died in the El Paso area and 4 around Eagle Pass.

Nonetheless, the dangerous terrain surrounding Tucson, Arizona, was the deadliest single zone for migrants, claiming 40 lives during the first half of the year. The Arizona numbers suggest migrant deaths could be on a downswing in comparison to the last two years. Still, it's important to note the reported deaths were registered before some of the hottest days of the year pound the border region.

The US Border Patrol's Tucson Sector reported 204 migrant deaths during the 2007 fiscal year that ended on September 30 of last year. The death toll represented a 21 percent increase from fiscal year 2006, when 165 deaths were registered. However, the Tucson-based Human Rights Coalition reported a higher death toll for the region than did the Border Patrol. The immigrant rights group cited 237 deaths for FY 2007, a number 32 higher than in FY 2006, when the coalition documented 205 deaths.

In 2007, 409 Mexican migrants died in the entire Mexico-US border region, according to the SRE. Official Mexican migrant death statistics for this year report most victims were individuals in the 18 to 45-year-old age category, with the death of one minor recorded.

Since 2001, the SRE has tallied the deaths of 2,956 Mexican migrants in the northern borderlands. The federal agency has identified the main causes of death as dehydration (1062), drowning (583) and vehicle accidents (247). In terms of geographic origin, ill-fated migrants from the states of Mexico, Guanajuato and Mexico City topped the list ofvictims.

Sources: La Jornada, July 6, 2008. Frontera/SUN, December 31, 2007.

Frontera NorteSur (FNS): on-line, U.S.-Mexico border news
Center for Latin American and Border Studies
New Mexico State University
Las Cruces, New Mexico

For a free electronic subscription email
fnsnews@nmsu.edu

Child Protective Services Gone Wild

The taking of hundreds of children from an alleged polygamist "compound" in Texas is not an isolated incident. Government agencies in other states exercise extra-constitutional authority to remove children from their homes under the guise of protecting children. Because of the nature of the agencies -- no one wants a truly abused child to be left in or returned to an abusive situation -- it is difficult to question this authority. But the taking of children from their homes by the government is an issue that deserves scrutiny.

In 2004 in Indiana, for example, according to this Indianapolis Star article (pdf) from 2006, the state's Child Protective Services removed 7,689 children from their homes and returned just 605. With 7000 children placed into foster care each year, it's no wonder that the state is over-extended in just this area alone.

Questions need to be raised. In a principally rural state with just 1.5 million children under the age of 18, are 7000 truly in abusive domestic situations? How much evidence is required to take a child? Many parents spend thousands of dollars and hours of court time to regain custody of children who were improvidently taken. Where is the balance?

Analyzing Voter Registration as a Factor of Low Turnout at the Polls

A recent paper from Princeton University explores how difficult it is to factor voter registration into turnout at the polls. It appears to be a step to help researchers learn how turnout can be increased. The author cites several reasons for low and inaccurate voter registration, including the mobility of Americans; every time you move, you have to figure out how to register, where to do it, and then actually register.

The paper concludes that the group of eligible voters that needs the most attention is youth. Younger voters move more frequently, attend school away from home, and enter military service. These factors contribute to a low youth vote registration. The paper is available here.

The Libertarian Lawyer Behind Heller

In March, 2007 the Washington Post carried a story about Robert Levy, the person behind perhaps the most important Supreme Court case since Brown vs. Board of Education. Levy doesn't own a gun. His basis for filing the suit was the restoration and defense of personal liberties :

To Levy the libertarian, though, the effectiveness of the law -- its success or failure in curbing crime -- isn't the core issue. What matters most to him is whether the statute unjustly infringes on personal liberties. He doesn't dispute that "reasonable" gun controls are permissible under the Second Amendment. But the District's law amounts to "an outright prohibition," Levy said, and "that offends my constitutional sensibilities."
Read the full article here.

In June, 2008 prior to the Court's decision, Levy downplayed in the Washington Times the effect of Heller:

Does the right to keep and bear arms belong to us as individuals? Does that right extend to private use of arms? Or does the Second Amendment simply authorize the states to arm the members of their militias? The court will have to answer those threshold questions before deciding whether the D.C. gun ban is constitutional. Given the bizarre history of the Miller case, its dubious analysis and inconclusive result, about the only guidance Miller offers is how not to go about setting a Supreme Court precedent.

The opinion, of course, is much broader than those specific questions. Read the full Washington Times column here.

Photograph from cato.org.

Congress Leans Conservative, Party Affiliation Influences Vote

Political scientist Jonathan Kropko conducted a party study of ideology in the first session of the 110th session of the House of Representatives. He made several interesting findings:

* More Democrats seem to be taking ideological positions in the middle, and there are more Democrats on the conservative side of ideology than there are Republicans on the liberal side.

* Representatives may not be so polarized ideologically when they're not being pressured by their parties.

* The Republican leadership in the House is much more conservative than the Democratic leadership is liberal. Nancy Pelosi and majority whip James Clyburn are staunchly on the conservative end of the Democratic party.

The paper can be found here.

Perhaps most interesting is that when members of Congress are thinking on their own and not in a partisan manner, they are more likely to vote similarly regardless of party affiliation. It suggests that if a representative were to take a stand and not fall in with the party leadership, more original thought would result, and perhaps more problems would be resolved in reasonable ways.

Voting a particular way simply because you are a member of a certain party is unfair and irresponsible. Your constituents elected you to either speak their minds or to speak your mind, not to speak your party's mind.

Just 5 Presidents Were Neither a Governor Nor a Senator

1. Taft (Secretary of War)
2. Hoover (Secretary of Commerce)
3. Eisenhower (General)
4. Ford (House of Representatives)
5. Bush 41 (Director of CIA)

What does this tell us? The odds are against Bob Barr winning the Presidency, as they are against Ralph Nader and Cynthia McKinney. What does it really tell us? A common man or woman will never become President. In order to achieve that office, you have to be a career politician, that is devote at least enough time to run for and become a Governor and Senator for at least one term, probably two, and then run for and become Vice President or President. It is a commitment of at least 10 years at a minimum.

Barr Fund Supported Paul Campaign

It appears that the Bob Barr Leadership Fund gave Ron Paul's presidential campaign $1000 last year. I wonder what the Paulians think about that? This site has the link to the filing.

Website? We Don't Need No Stinking Website.

Those advising Governor Daniels in his reelection bid have apparently neglected to maintain Daniels' website, mymanmitch.com. Going there results in an error "The network path was not found." And there seems to be no other Daniels campaign site. The lack of a website suggests both arrogance and inadvertence, and voters, especially the younger ones, will take note. Both Jill Long Thompson and Andrew Horning have erected sites, although both are poorly designed and maintained, and they appear to be taking this election seriously, but Daniels does not. Keep an eye on how many debates the governor consents to. That will be another sign of whether he cares about Hoosier voters.

Indiana Governor's Race Deadlocked

The Indiana governor's race is as tight as it can get. A poll (Excel file) released this week by the Center for Indiana Politics shows the candidates deadlocked. One of the questions asked was would you vote for Mitch Daniels/Jill Long Thompson no matter who else is on the ballot, against Daniels/Long Thompson no matter who else is on the ballot, or might or might not vote for Daniels/Long Thompson no matter who else is on the ballot. Forty percent said that they might or might not vote for Daniels depending on who else was on the ballot, and 52% said the same about Long Thompson. Not much has changed for either candidate since a pre-primary poll was taken where they were tied at 45%-45%.

The poll did not track the Libertarian nominee, Andrew Horning, who is the only other name on the ballot, and it will be interesting to see how many votes Horning delivers for his party and whether those votes come from Republicans, Democrats, Libertarians, or independents. In the 2004 election Libertarian Kenn Gividen earned 1.3% to Joe Kernan's 45.5% and Daniels' 53.2%. With the Libertarian Party increasing in size and a big name on the top of the ballot, presidential nominee Bob Barr, Horning may get close to 5% this year, which will make this race all the more fun to watch.

The Old New World Order

I'm not one for conspiracy theories. It seems that conspiracy theorists go out of their way to publish loud websites in all caps AS IF THEY'RE SHOUTING AT THEIR PC's.


more graph humor and song chart memes

But this New World Order map from Strange Maps piqued my interest. I don't see the North American Superhighway there, but I'm happy to see that Greenland is part of the North American Union. It seems that we may have control of the north pole. Of course when the Earth's axis flips, that's not going to do us a lot of good.